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Website Overview - Tracking Returns to Retail Investors from Mirroring Trades by Corporate Insiders

  Returns from Insider Trading  Many academics and investors have studied insider trading.  But most have studied the returns  to the insider  and not the return  to a retail investor  who, using only publicly available information about such trades, mirrors all such trades.  This website will attempt to remedy that problem by presenting a wide range of studies of insider trading data, using my own database containing millions of insider transactions reported on the SEC's website over the past 19 years, with a focus on hypothetical returns to  retail investors  assuming such investor mirrored the trades of insiders after such trades were publicly reported.   Insiders Tend to Outperform the Market on Their Purchases and, Perhaps, Their Sales The evidence suggests that insiders make, on average, market-beating returns on purchases of the stock of the company that they run.  As this website develops more fully, you will see some of that evidence presented on this website.   Some evide

Can you use the aggregated opinion of corporate executives to accurately identify major stock market bottoms? The answer, surprisingly, appears to be “yes.” | Brad Grounds

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By:  Brad Grounds After reading this article, you, as a retail investor, will have all the knowledge necessary to reliably and accurately call the absolute bottom of any major market decline, and, if you stay disciplined in keeping cash on the sideline waiting for such a bottom to occur (…and this wait can take years…) then you can earn substantial profits from doing so. Sounds impossible, doesn’t it? If you’ve read the sentence above and are scoffing at the idea that someone could teach you to call market bottoms, I don’t blame you. After all, there is no analyst in the world – not even Warren Buffett himself – who has been able to do so. But I invite you to read this article in full and, upon completion, reconsider whether you now believe what I wrote above. I hope you enjoy! The Key Metric to Watch: Are  Insiders Buying Abnormal Amounts of Their Own Stock in the Open Market? Among all of the potential indicators that could signal a buying opportunity likely to result in substantial

With the S&P 500 trading at ~3,600 (down about 25% from the highs), do market insiders believe that today's prices represent an attractive entry point?

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By: Brad Grounds As I write this post today, the S&P 500 is trading in the 3,600s.  The S&P 500 has declined by 25% (and the NASDAQ is down even more), and many "talking heads" and other pundits are calling for a recession.   With this in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to check with people who actually know what they're talking about - the top executives at all publicly traded companies on US exchanges.   I have previously discussed in detail about the remarkably strong evidence that the collective intelligence of market insiders is able to identify market bottoms with incredible accuracy .   Hence, I will skip any background explanation of either my method or the historical accuracy and support for the metrics that I cite below. Market Insiders Have Already Given A Buy Signal (though it is weak) As I sit here today on June 17, 2022, I cannot comment directly on the feelings of market insiders (i.e., the top executives actually running all of the publicly

Does the Relative Size of an Insider's Trade Correlate with Over- or Under-Performance of Such Trade?

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By:  Brad Grounds The question we are trying to answer today is this: Does the size of a corporate insider's trade relative to the size of his or her past trades in the same company's stock correlate with the return achieved by such trade?  Put another way, do abnormally large purchases by insiders earn, on average, higher returns than smaller purchases by the same insider?     What Constitutes A Large Trade? A number of academic studies suggest that larger purchases do correlate with larger returns.  However, it is important to note how each study defines large trades.  Below are the two common ways that the line of demarcation between "large" and "small" trades have been defined in a number of different studies, as well as the potential shortcomings of such approaches. Total number of shares purchased - Using this method, the total number of shares purchased serve as the proxy to segment trades into groups.  Trades with a very high number of shares - perh